Rookie Stock Watch: 2013 Training Camp Edition

by iamthefrenzy

Time for Sports Card Frenzy’s first market report!

Last night I scrolled through the recent Ebay sales of three popular 2013 releases and compiled a list of the Top 20 highest-selling rookies for each set: Bowman, Leaf Metal Draft, and Topps Inception. Overall rankings are at the bottom.

Bowman Base Refractor Autos:

1. Geno Smith – $81.50
2. EJ Manual – $74.99
3. Eddie Lacy – $61.00
4. Marcus Lattimore – $59.99
5. Matt Barkley – $59.49
6. Tavon Austin – $49.99
7. Montee Ball – $45.00
8. Denard Robinson – $34.50
9. Le.Veon Bell – $32.99
10. Markus Wheaton – $32.00
11. Cordarrell Patterson – $31.00
11. Ryan Nassib – $31.00
13. Giovani Bernard – $26.09
14. Landry Jones – $26.00
14. Jarvis Jones – $26.00
16. Tyler Eifert – $25.85
17. DeAndre Hopkins – $25.40
18. Tyler Wilson – $21.06
19. Knile Davis – $20.49
20. Quinton Patton – $19.99

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Leaf Metal Draft Base Autos:

1. Geno Smith – $59.99
2. EJ Manual – $39.99
2. Manti Te’o – $39.99
4. Eddie Lacy – $39.78
5. Matt Barkley – $34.00
6. Tavon Austin – $29.00
6. Montee Ball – $29.00
8. Denard Robinson – $24.50
9. Tyrann Mathieu – $21.50
10. Eric Reid – $20.50
11. Rex Burkhead – $19.99
12. Cordarrelle Patterson – $19.99
13. Le’Veon Bell – $19.50
14. Marcus Lattimore – $18.00
15. Tyler Eifert – $16.50
16. Joseph Randle – $15.99
17. Giovani Bernard – $15.99
18. DeAndre Hopkins – $13.55
19. Terrance Williams – $13.06
20. Landry Jones – $12.76

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Inception Base Autos:

1. Geno Smith – $56.00
2. EJ MAnual – $40.00
3. Tavon Austin – $38.54
4. Cordarrelle Patterson – $36.00
5. Le’Veon Bell – $33.00
6. Matt Barkley – $30.00
7. Montee Ball – $28.00
8. Eddie Lacy – $24.99
9. Giovani Bernard – $21.90
10. Landry Jones – $19.99
10. Marcus Lattimore – $19.99
12. Ryan Nassib – $19.95
13. DeAndre Hopkins – $18.27
14. Joseph Randle – $18.01
15. Johnathan Franklin – $18.00
16. Aaron Dobson – $17.51
17. Tyler Eifert – $17.16
18. Denard Robinson – $15.50
19. Quinton Patton – $15.00
20. Robert Woods – $14.50

So now what do we do with this data? Well, I’ve added each player’s two best finishes together and then ranked them from lowest to highest. What we end up with is a ranking of each rookie drawn from all Ebay sales within the past 60 days across three popular sets.

Top 20 Rookies: Training Camp

1. Geno Smith 1, 1, 1 = 2
2. EJ Manual 2, 2, 2 = 4
3. Eddie Lacy 3, 4, 8 = 7
4. Tavon Austin 6, 6, 3 = 9
5. Matt Barkley 5, 5, 6 =10
6. Montee Ball 7, 6, 7 = 13
7. Marcus Lattimore 4, 14, 10 = 14
7. Le’Veon Bell 9, 13, 5 = 14
9. Cordarrelle Patterson 11, 12, 4 = 15
10. Denard Robinson 8, 8, 18 =16
11. Giovani Bernard 13, 17, 9 = 22
12. Ryan Nassib 11, 12 = 23
13. Landry Jones 14, 20, 10 = 24
14. Joseph Randle 14, 16 = 30
14. DeAndre Hopkins 17, 18, 13 = 30
16. Tyler Eifert 16, 15, 17 = 31
17. Quinton Patton 19, 20 = 39
18. Manti Te’o (courtesy of 3rd place in Leaf Metal)
19. Tyrann Mathieu (courtesy of 9th place in Leaf Metal)
20. Markus Wheaton (courtesy of 10th place in Bowman)

Take Aways:

– Despite falling to the 2nd round, despite displaying a horrible draft day attitude, despite going to the Jets, despite Rex Ryan saying they plan to use him as a “change of pace,” Geno Smith is STILL the highest selling rookie in this year’s class! I really don’t know what to say about this other than we as collectors are idiots.
– Pittsburgh collectors are CRAZY! Le’Veon Bell is a seriously talented back who should rightly have Steeler fans giddy, but Landry Jones and Markus Wheaton? Oh well, if you pull one of these guys, sell now before reality hits the Steel City.
– Giants fans are slightly less crazy (but still very crazy) with their infatuation with Nassib. The Syracuse QB has much more potential than Landry Jones and in the long run it could be worth it to hang on to his stuff, but the truth is his prices will likely never be higher.
– Maybe the running back isn’t as close to extinction as we feared. Six of the top fourteen rookies will be taking handoffs regularly. (Seven if you count Denard Robinson, aka, the “Offensive Weapon.”)
– Most overpriced rookies? (Aside from Geno) Eddie Lacy, Marcus Lattimore, Denard Robinson, Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones, and Joseph Randle. Lacy still has to beat out Johnathan Franklin for the starting job and even then there is no promise that Green Bay will FINALLY have a running game. Lattimore is currently an injured 3rd string RB whose potential lies largely in 2014 – that’s a lot of “ifs” for the seventh-highest selling rookie. Nassib and Jones are backups, nothing more. Robinson is exciting, but he plays for the Jaguars and his popularity is mainly a carry over from his college heroics at Michigan. Although DeMarco Murray will probably go down with an injury again at some point this season, Randle isn’t even the backup at the moment with reports coming from training camp that former North Texas running back Lance Dunbar has currently earned the backup spot.
– The most surprising omissions from this list? I’d have to say Tyler Wilson (hands down), followed by Robert Woods, Johnathan Franklin, Justin Hunter, and Terrance Williams.

– The Frenzy

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